The maths behind the drawdown recovery calculator
A drawdown is a fall from a previous high, measured in percent.
After a fall, the remaining value is smaller, so the same percentage rise adds back fewer euros than the fall took away.
| Fall | Rise needed to recover |
|---|---|
| 10% | 11.1% |
| 25% | 33.3% |
| 50% | 100% |
| 75% | 300% |
| 80% | 400% |
| 90% | 900% |
Calculated with the formula above.
The deeper the fall, the steeper the climb back, which is why limiting losses matters more than chasing gains.
Why the drawdown recovery calculator matters for crypto
Crypto prices have a history of large falls, including falls of well over half from a previous peak.
Some coins never recover at all, because their projects fail or lose their users.
The drawdown recovery calculator does not predict what any coin will do, but it shows what a fall would mean if it happened to you.
Drawdown recovery calculator example: €10,000 and a 75% fall
Example: a portfolio worth €10,000 falls by 75%.
- The value after the fall is €2,500.
- A rise of 300% is needed to get back to €10,000.
- At a steady 20% a year, that would take about 7.6 years.
Illustrative example calculated with the drawdown recovery calculator above; the 20% yearly rise is an assumption, not a forecast.
Real prices do not rise at a steady rate, and a recovery may come faster, slower or not at all.
Drawdowns and your finances
A drawdown on paper becomes a real loss if you are forced to sell at the bottom.
That happens most often when the money was needed for something else, or when it was borrowed.
- Keep a buffer: an emergency fund means you never have to sell crypto to pay a bill, as the emergency fund calculator shows.
- Limit the share: the smaller crypto's share of your savings, the less a fall hurts, as the portfolio share calculator shows.
- Never borrow to invest: a debt stays the same size when the price falls.
Drawdowns and decision-making
Large falls are hard to sit through, and fear often leads to selling at a low point.
Before investing, it helps to decide how you would react to a 50% or 80% fall, and whether you could leave the money untouched for years.
The risk tolerance test asks exactly these questions.
Drawdowns in single coins and in portfolios
A single small coin can lose almost all of its value, while a mix of assets usually falls less at once.
Holding crypto alongside other savings does not prevent a fall in crypto, but it limits how much of your total wealth is exposed.
The crypto stress test shows the effect of falls on your total savings rather than on crypto alone.
Leverage and drawdowns
With leverage, a fall in price is multiplied, and a position can be closed automatically before the price has a chance to recover.
A fall of 10% on a position with ten times leverage can wipe out the whole stake.
That is one of the reasons this site does not compare leveraged products, as the guide to crypto leverage and derivatives explains.
Drawdown recovery calculator: time to recover at different growth rates
Example: how long a recovery from a 75% fall would take at steady yearly rises.
| Assumed yearly rise | Years to recover from −75% |
|---|---|
| 10% | About 14.5 |
| 20% | About 7.6 |
| 50% | About 3.4 |
| 100% | 2.0 |
Calculated with ln(4) ÷ ln(1 + rise); assumptions, not forecasts.
Even at a very high steady rise, a deep fall takes years to undo, and real prices rarely rise steadily.
Drawdowns and the order of returns
The same set of yearly returns can lead to different outcomes depending on the order in which they happen.
A large fall early, when you have just invested, hurts more than the same fall later after gains, because it hits the full amount.
That is one reason some people spread purchases over time, as the lump sum versus DCA calculator explores.
Drawdowns when you are adding money
If you keep buying during a fall, your average cost falls, so your own break-even point arrives sooner than the price's full recovery.
That only helps if the price eventually recovers at least to your average cost, and only if the money you keep adding is money you can afford to lose.
The DCA calculator shows this with a price path you choose.
Drawdowns when you need to withdraw
Selling during a drawdown turns a temporary fall into a permanent loss.
If you may need money soon, an emergency fund protects you from having to sell at the bottom, as the emergency fund calculator shows.
Limiting drawdowns in practice
- Keep the share small: a fall in crypto then has a small effect on total savings.
- Avoid concentration in one small coin: single small coins can fall further.
- Never use leverage: it can turn a drawdown into a total loss.
- Rebalance by rule: taking some profit after rises reduces the size of later falls.
Drawdown recovery calculator: the recovery table
| Fall | Rise needed to recover |
|---|---|
| 10% | 11.1% |
| 20% | 25% |
| 30% | 42.9% |
| 50% | 100% |
| 60% | 150% |
| 75% | 300% |
| 80% | 400% |
| 90% | 900% |
Formula: required rise = fall ÷ (1 − fall).
The deeper the fall, the faster the required rise grows, which is why large losses are so hard to recover from.
Drawdown recovery calculator: costs make recovery harder
Example: €1,000 falls 50% to €500, and you sell and buy back twice while waiting, paying 1% each time.
Four trades at 1% leave about €480, so a rise of about 108% is now needed to get back to €1,000 instead of 100%.
Frequent trading during a drawdown often feels like doing something, but each trade raises the bar for recovery.
Drawdown recovery calculator: coins that never recovered
The recovery table assumes the price eventually rises, but some coins never return to earlier highs, and some projects fail completely.
A 100% loss cannot be recovered at all, which is the reason small, new coins carry so much more risk than established ones.
When using the calculator, it can help to ask not only how much the price would need to rise, but also whether you would still want to hold the coin if it never did.
Drawdown recovery calculator: planning before a fall
- Decide your maximum loss: the amount you could lose without changing your life.
- Size your position: so that a 75% fall stays within that amount.
- Write down your plan: what you will do after a 30%, 50% and 75% fall.
- Keep the emergency fund separate: so you never need to sell at the bottom.
- Review once a year: not every time the price moves.
Drawdown recovery calculator: questions readers ask
Is a 50% fall followed by a 50% rise break-even? No; €100 falling 50% becomes €50, and a 50% rise takes it only to €75.
How long does recovery take? It depends entirely on future prices, which no one knows; the time table above only shows what different steady growth rates would mean.
Should I buy more after a fall? Only if it fits a plan made in advance and the amount is still money you could afford to lose.
Drawdown recovery calculator and your feelings about losses
Studies of investor behaviour describe loss aversion: losses tend to feel worse than gains of the same size feel good.
In a deep drawdown, this can push people to sell at the bottom to stop the pain, or to take bigger risks to win the loss back quickly.
Seeing the numbers in the drawdown recovery calculator before a fall, and deciding in advance what you will do, makes both reactions less likely.
The investor behaviour quiz covers loss aversion and other common biases.
Writing down your plan for a fall, before it happens, is one of the simplest ways to keep emotions out of the decision.
Review the plan once a year.
Frequently asked questions
Why does a 50% fall need a 100% rise to recover?
After a 50% fall, only half of the money is left. To get back to the start, that half has to double, which is a rise of 100%.
Does the drawdown recovery calculator predict prices?
No. It only shows the maths of losses and recoveries. The yearly rise is a scenario you choose.
Do crypto prices always recover after a fall?
No. Some coins recover and some never do. Past recoveries are no guarantee for the future.
What is a drawdown?
A drawdown is a fall in value from a previous high, usually measured in percent.
How can I limit the effect of a drawdown?
Keep an emergency fund, limit crypto's share of your savings, avoid leverage and never invest borrowed money.
Is my data saved when I use the drawdown recovery calculator?
No. Everything runs in your browser and nothing is stored or sent.
Every figure on this page is checked against the ESMA register, the exchange's own terms and fee pages or another primary source, and the sources are listed above. Editorial policy · How we rate